This study will apply a targeted metabolomics approach to the prediction of gestational diabetes from a single blood sample collected in the first trimester of pregnancy and stored for the Research Program on Genes, Environment and Health pregnancy cohort study,…
This study addresses predicting risk of post-traumatic stress disorder and other mental health conditions following hospitalization for life-threatening conditions. We will use an existing, retrospective cohort of 408,377 patients hospitalized with severe illness, including sepsis, to develop and validate predictive…
This is a project more comprehensively determine the genetic factors associated with PSA levels, and to develop and apply prediction models for PCa outcomes based on genetically-adjusted PSA levels throughout life, by executing the following specific aims. This will be…
The goals of the study are to determine whether treating GHSV infection in pregnancy, especially earlier in pregnancy, is effective in mitigating the racial disparities in SMM, and GHSV infection, if untreated, contribute to racial disparities in the risk of…
This K23 career development project seeks to leverage electronic health record data from KPNC and 2 health system collaborators within the Mental Health Research Network to investigate population health management strategies to prevent diabetes and improve cardiovascular health among people…
The prevalence of aortic stenosis (AS), currently estimated to be 4% among adults 70 years of age and over is projected to double by 2040 and triple by 2060. However, the prevalence, clinical characteristics, and outcomes of the condition have…
This project will establish a prospective cohort of white and Black cancer patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors, leveraging the NCI Community Oncology Research Program network infrastructure, to investigate racial differences in immune-related adverse events and their predictors, treatment delay…
The burden of osteoporosis has increased as the US population over age 65 years has increased. Ethnic diversity in the U.S. has also increased. This is the first large scale US study of fracture outcomes among Asians and ethnic subgroups…
This career development award project will compare the effectiveness of pharmacological therapy for lower urinary tract symptoms secondary to benign prostatic hyperplasia in preventing long-term disease progression; and develop and validate predictive models using demographic, clinical, and laboratory data available…
Rationale: Crisis standards of care (CSCs) guide critical care resource allocation during crises. Most recommend ranking patients on the basis of their expected in-hospital mortality using the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, but it is unknown how SOFA or…
An effort to more comprehensively determine the genetic factors associated with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels, and to develop and apply prediction models for prostate cancer outcomes based on genetically-adjusted PSA levels throughout life.
Guidelines suggest screening of individuals who are at increased risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Tools for identifying patients at risk of Barrett's esophagus have been validated. Here, we aimed to compare and validate the tools for the primary outcomes of…
Bilirubin screening before discharge is performed to identify neonates at risk for future hyperbilirubinemia. The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends using a graph of bilirubin levels by age (the Bhutani Nomogram) to guide follow-up and a different graph to determine…
Social pain and physical pain are related bidirectionally, but how these variables cluster in the population is unknown. This study included 2833 women from the Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN), a community-based cohort of middle-aged women, and…
This project aims to improve The Permanente Medical Group's capability for outpatient and population management of adults with COVID-19. It will identify the spatial, temporal, and racial distribution of coronavirus infections; characterize the clinical progression of coronavirus infection; and synthesize…
An increasing number of delivering women experience major morbidity and mortality. Limited work has been done on automated predictive models that could be used for prevention. Using only routinely collected obstetrical data, this study aimed to develop a predictive model…
Prediction of readmission and death after hospitalization for heart failure (HF) is an unmet need. We evaluated the ability of clinical parameters, NT-proBNP level and noninvasive lung impedance (LI), to predict time to readmission (TTR) and time to death (TTD).…
To assess both the feasibility and potential impact of predicting preventable hospital readmissions using causal machine learning applied to data from the implementation of a readmissions prevention intervention (the Transitions Program). Electronic health records maintained by Kaiser Permanente Northern California…
Prediction models are widely used in health care as a way of risk stratifying populations for targeted intervention. Most risk stratification has been done using a small number of predictors from insurance claims. However, the utility of diverse nonclinical predictors,…
Patient frailty increases the risk for surgical complications, which are common, costly, and deadly, especially for older Americans. To improve surgical care for older adults, we will investigate whether electronic measures of frailty can help reduce complications by identifying which…
Pediatric appendicitis remains a challenging diagnosis in the emergency department (ED). Available risk prediction algorithms may contribute to excessive ED imaging studies. Incorporation of physician gestalt assessment could help refine predictive tools and improve diagnostic imaging decisions. This study was…
Chemotherapy-associated peripheral neuropathy (CPN) affects nearly 70% of cancer patients. An estimated 30% of cancer survivors have persistent CPN, which can have a devastating impact on their quality of life and functioning. Our objective is to develop and validate a…
This study will identify biochemical markers that predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in women after a pregnancy complicated by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Ultimately, the results of this study may lead to improved testing and more effective, personalized interventions to…
We are using post-polypectomy surveillance, an increasingly common indication for colonoscopy in clinical practice at TPMG and across the United States, as a model for how we might risk-stratify patients for care. Patients and physicians desire more precise estimates of…
This study tests the hypothesis that established NICHD-approved electronic fetal monitoring (EFM) features used as standard care in the U.S. and other developed countries can exhibit improved sensitivity and specificity for predicting HIE when they are combined with novel EFM features…
The SRI team will (a) assess results of previous internal and external deployments of alternatives to hospitalization, (b) define strategies to quantify the potential pool of Kaiser Permanente Northern California patients who would be eligible for such alternatives, (c) develop…
To develop a risk prediction model for occult uterine sarcoma using preoperative clinical characteristics in women undergoing hysterectomy for presumed uterine leiomyomata. Cases of uterine sarcoma were identified from the electronic medical records. Age/race-matched controls were selected at a 2:1…
To examine physical activity (PA) patterns from pre- to post-diagnosis, and compare these changes to women without breast cancer. To determine pre-diagnosis predictors of PA change, post-diagnosis, in breast cancer survivors (BCS). Data were from 2314 Study of Women's Health…
Among patients who had acute kidney injury (AKI) during hospitalization, there is a need to improve risk prediction such that those at highest risk for subsequent loss of kidney function are identified for appropriate follow-up. To evaluate the association of…
To prioritize pediatric attended polysomnography and treatment for children most in need while reducing the unnecessary use of overnight sleep studies, we propose to build and rigorously evaluate a clinical risk prediction model. We will combine data from pediatric sleep…
This study brings together investigators from around the world to carry out a genetics study of severe major depressive disorder (MDD) treated with electroconvulsive therapy (ECT). The National Network of Depression Centers and allied centers in the U.S. will carry…
This review sought to (a) describe definitions of long-term opioid therapy (LTOT) outcome measures, and (b) identify the predictors associated with the transition from short-term opioid use to LTOT for opioid-naïve individuals. We conducted a systematic review of the peer-reviewed…
The National Institutes of Health's Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) initiative aims to understand the impact of environmental factors on childhood disease. Over 40,000 chemicals are approved for commercial use. The challenge is to prioritize chemicals for biomonitoring…
In health informatics, there have been concerns with reuse of electronic health data for research, including potential bias from incorrect or incomplete outcome ascertainment. In this tutorial, we provide a concise review of predictive value-based quantitative bias analysis (QBA), which…
Predictive analytics in health care has generated increasing enthusiasm recently, as reflected in a rapidly growing body of predictive models reported in literature and in real-time embedded models using electronic health record data. However, estimating the benefit of applying any…
Aim 1: Identify patient-level predictors of metformin treatment during the year following type 2 diabetes diagnosis. Examined factors will include: demographics, such as age, race/ethnicity, gender, and rural versus urban; clinical characteristics, such as A1c at diagnosis, diabetes-related comorbidities (hypertension,…
Most clinical and epidemiologic estimates of prenatal cannabis use are based on self-report, and the validity of self-reported cannabis use has not been examined in a large, representative population of pregnant women. We determined the validity of self-reported prenatal cannabis…
The limitations of existing HIV risk prediction tools are a barrier to implementation of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We developed and validated an HIV prediction model to identify potential PrEP candidates in a large health-care system. Our study population was HIV-uninfected…
Significant research has focused individually on blood donors, product preparation and storage, and optimal transfusion practice. To better understand the interplay between these factors on measures of red blood cell (RBC) transfusion efficacy, we conducted a linked analysis of blood…
This study aims to utilize data from the Kaiser Permanente Northern California Gestational Diabetes and Pregnancy Glucose Tolerance Registry for a cohort of 25,000 women diagnosed with gestational diabetes. The goal is to determine whether clinical and laboratory factors can…
As part of a multidisciplinary team managing patients with type-2 diabetes, pharmacists need a consistent approach of identifying and prioritizing patients at highest risk of adverse outcomes. Our objective was to identify which predictors of adverse outcomes among type-2 diabetes…
This study explores the enduring impact of screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment (SBIRT) delivered in pediatric primary care, on young adults. We will examine substance use, mental health and medical outcomes, and health services utilization and cost over…
Using a theory-driven conceptual framework, this multimethod study examines factors that facilitate or impede the successful implementation and long-term sustainability of screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment (SBIRT) for risky alcohol use in real-world health care settings. This study…
Despite adoption of molecular biomarkers in the management of NSCLC, the recently adopted eighth edition of the TNM staging system utilized only clinicopathologic characteristics and validated improvement in risk stratification of early-stage disease has remained elusive. We therefore evaluated the…
After dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury (AKI-D), recovery of sufficient kidney function to discontinue dialysis is an important clinical and patient-oriented outcome. Predicting the probability of recovery in individual patients is a common dilemma. This cohort study examined all adult members…
Research is needed to better understand relations between immunosuppression and HIV viraemia and risk for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, a common cancer in people living with HIV. We aimed to identify key CD4 count and HIV RNA (viral load) predictors of risk…
Pharmacists are an expensive and limited resource in the hospital and outpatient setting. A pharmacist can spend up to 25% of their day planning. Time spent planning is time not spent delivering an intervention. A readmission risk adjustment model has…
Genome-wide association studies have reported 56 independently associated colorectal cancer (CRC) risk variants, most of which are non-coding and believed to exert their effects by modulating gene expression. The computational method PrediXcan uses cis-regulatory variant predictors to impute expression and…
Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) affects up to 20% of pregnancies, and almost half of the women affected progress to type 2 diabetes later in life, making GDM the most significant risk factor for the development of future type 2 diabetes.…
Electronic medical records hold promise to transform clinical practice. However, technological and other barriers may preclude using them to guide care in real time. We used the Virtual Data Warehouse (VDW) to develop a tool that enables physicians to generate…
Traditional risk estimates for atherosclerotic vascular disease (ASVD) and death may not perform optimally in the setting of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We sought to determine whether the addition of measures of inflammation and kidney function to traditional estimation tools…
To assess the relative contributions of patient and surgeon factors for predicting selection of ileal conduit (IC), neobladder (NB), or continent pouch (CP) urinary diversions (UD) for patients diagnosed with muscle-invasive/high-risk nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer. This information is needed to…
Acute kidney injury (AKI) has numerous sequelae. Repeated episodes of AKI may be an important determinant of adverse outcomes, including chronic kidney disease and death. In a population-based cohort study, we sought to determine the incidence of and predictors for…
Colorectal cancer (CRC) causes more than 50,000 deaths each year in the United States but early detection through screening yields survival gains; those diagnosed with early stage disease have a 5-year survival greater than 90%, compared to 12% for those…
This project will examine patient and community-level correlates of housing instability and homelessness using observational data sources. These formative analyses will develop variables to operationalize housing instability using administrative and clinical data, and explore potential predictors of housing stability and…
This study utilizes clinical prenatal-care blood pressure measurements and other clinical and biochemical variables to develop models for the early prediction of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, and evaluates the relationship of pregnancy blood-pressure patterns to new onset hypertension and cardiovascular…
Compared to adults admitted to general medical-surgical wards, women admitted to labor and delivery services are at much lower risk of experiencing unexpected critical illness. Nonetheless, critical illness and other complications that put either the mother or fetus at risk…
Background: The prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) has increased rapidly in the United States and improving treatment access is critical. Among patients with OUD, we examined factors associated with the Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS) performance measures…
In resource-constrained facilities or during resuscitation, immediate paediatric weight estimation remains a fundamental challenge. We aimed to develop and validate weight estimation models based on ulna length and forearm width and circumference measured by simple and portable tools; and to…
This is a renewal of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study Clinical Center at Kaiser Permanente Northern California and UCSF, which will continue long-term follow-up of existing participants with chronic kidney. The overall goals are to examine the links…
This ancillary project to the multicenter Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study will examine the incidence and associated predictors of episodes of acute kidney injury among a prospective cohort of adults with underlying chronic kidney disease, and the associated clinical…
Background Measures of subclinical atherosclerosis are predictors of future cardiovascular outcomes as well as of physical and cognitive functioning. The menopausal transition is associated with accelerated progression of atherosclerosis in women. The prospective association between a healthy lifestyle during the…
Cutaneous squamous cell cancers (cSCCs) present an under-recognized health issue among non-Hispanic whites, one that is likely to increase as populations age. cSCC risks vary considerably among non-Hispanic whites, and this heterogeneity indicates the need for risk-stratified screening strategies that…
Screening has been shown to reduce colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. However, screening has resulted in a growing cohort of patients with adenomatous polyps (adenomas), and little is known about effectively managing their post-polypectomy surveillance. With limited data available in…
In a population of adults with newly diagnosed, early onset type 2 diabetes, this study will identify patient-, provider-, and system-level predictors of inadequate glycemic control within one year following diagnosis. A longitudinal, retrospective cohort analysis of electronic health record…
The purpose of this project is to examine quality indicators for key chronic conditions such as diabetes and asthma for the Medi-Cal population served by Kaiser Permanente Northern California and to see how these indicators vary by different population definitions/denominators.…
Early evidence suggests there will be ongoing waves of COVID-19 outbreak that can be mitigated through effective community-level prediction models and intervention. This project will Identify pre-sepsis opportunities for early, targeted intervention to inform community-level mitigation strategies of upcoming COVID19…
Previous studies have not examined the ability of multiple preconception biomarkers, considered together, to improve prediction of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). To develop a preconception biomarker risk score and assess its association with subsequent GDM. A nested case-control study among…
Men who have sex with men who are living with HIV are at highest risk for anal cancer. Our objective was to use empirical data to develop a comprehensive disease simulation model that reflects the most current understanding of anal…
Contemporary data about symptomatic paroxysmal supraventricular tachycardia (PSVT) epidemiology are limited. We characterized prevalence and correlates of symptomatic PSVT within a large healthcare delivery system and estimated national PSVT burden. We identified adults with an encounter for potential PSVT between…
Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have successfully identified thousands of genetic variants for many complex diseases; however, these variants explain only a small fraction of the heritability. Recently, genetic association studies that leverage external transcriptome data have received much attention and…
Patients with chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) benefit from medical and device therapies targeting sudden cardiac death (SCD). Contemporary estimates of SCD risk after hospitalization for heart failure are limited. We describe the incidence, timing, and clinical…
Long-term follow-up care among prostate cancer patients is important as biochemical recurrence can occur many years after diagnosis, with 20%-30% of men experiencing biochemical recurrence within 10 years of treatment. This study examined predictors of follow-up care among 1,158 radical…
This study developed, validated, and disseminated a generalizable informatics algorithm for detecting breast cancer recurrence and timing using a gold standard measure of recurrence coupled with data derived from a readily available common data model that pools health insurance claims…
Acute Heart Failure (AHF) is a " multi-event disease" and hospitalisation is a critical event in the clinical course of HF. Despite relatively rapid relief of symptoms, hospitalisation for AHF is followed by an increased risk of death and re-hospitalisation.…
Estimates of the prevalence of Parkinson's disease in North America have varied widely and many estimates are based on small numbers of cases and from small regional subpopulations. We sought to estimate the prevalence of Parkinson's disease in North America…
This 18-month research project will bring together a multidisciplinary team of scientists and clinicians from four Kaiser Permanente regions (Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, Kaiser Permanente Hawaii, and Kaiser Permanente of the Mid-Atlantic States) to identify patients most…
AIMS: Troponin levels are commonly elevated among patients hospitalized for heart failure (HF), but the prevalence and prognostic significance of early post-discharge troponin elevation are unclear. This study sought to describe the frequency and prognostic value of pre-discharge and post-discharge…
Current algorithms for management of neonatal early-onset sepsis (EOS) result in medical intervention for large numbers of uninfected infants. We developed multivariable prediction models for estimating the risk of EOS among late preterm and term infants based on objective data…
The aims of this study are: 1) To build a comprehensive risk-prediction model for colorectal cancer and advanced adenoma in 45,000 colorectal tumors and 45,000 controls based on existing common and rare genome-wide genetic variants, demographic characteristics, and lifestyle and…
The objective of this study is to predict visual acuity and incidence rates of complications after cataract surgery.
Specific study aims are: 1) To establish a multi-ethnic cohort between the ages of 60 and 79 years with equal representation of white, African-American, Asian and Hispanic/Latina women. All participants will be recruited at the time of their regular screening…
The objective of this study is to develop models to predict the development of substance use disorders (SUDs) among adolescents in four health systems: KPNC, KPHI, Henry Ford and Geisinger. We will focus on EHR data available during study period…
Screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) presents an opportunity to improve early detection and reduce mortality from lung cancer. However, the potential harms of LDCT screening, including frequent false-positive findings that lead to unnecessary procedures and repeated radiation exposure, have…
An electronic alert system targeting adult patients in 3 hospital units (ward, telemetry, and transitional care unit) will be deployed at two KPNC hospitals (South San Francisco and Sacramento). The alert system provides early (12 hours) warning about a patient's…
This project will investigate the impact of modifiable lifestyle factors, germline genetic variations, and serum biomarkers, on adverse skeletal outcomes among aromatase inhibitor users, as well as develop a prediction model for risk of fractures for postmenopausal breast cancer patients…
This project will examine predictors of and outcomes after recurrent Clostridium difficile infection in adults. Predictors will include age, sex, diagnoses, severity of illness, hospital length of stay, and antibiotic exposure. Outcomes will include hospital utilization, particularly use of intensive…
Postpartum anemia is associated with maternal and perinatal morbidity. Population-level data may inform guideline development for postpartum anemia screening. Our objectives were to evaluate the associations between potential predictors (predelivery anemia and postpartum hemorrhage [PPH]) with severe postpartum anemia after…
Heart failure is a clinical syndrome that manifests from various cardiac and noncardiac abnormalities. Accordingly, rapid and readily accessible methods for diagnosis and risk stratification are invaluable for providing clinical care, deciding allocation of scare resources, and designing selection criteria…
Heart failure (HF) is a major and increasing global public health problem. In Asia, aging populations and recent increases in cardiovascular risk factors have contributed to a particularly high burden of HF, with outcomes that are poorer than those in…
The decision to use anticoagulants for atrial fibrillation depends on comparing a patient's estimated risk of stroke to their bleeding risk. Several of the risk factors in the stroke risk schemes overlap with hemorrhage risk. We compared how well 2…
Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) affects 3-14% of pregnancies, with 20-50% of these women progressing to type 2 diabetes (T2D) within 5 years. This study sought to develop a metabolomics signature to predict the transition from GDM to T2D. A prospective…
Both quality improvement and clinical research efforts over the past few decades have focused on consensus definition of sepsis and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Although clinical definitions based on readily available clinical data have advanced recognition and timely use…
Randomized trials of left atrial appendage (LAA) closure with the Watchman device have shown varying results, and its cost effectiveness compared with anticoagulation has not been evaluated using all available contemporary trial data. We used a Markov decision model to…
OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to characterize the association between decongestion therapy and 30-day outcomes in patients hospitalized for heart failure (HF).BACKGROUND: Loop diuretic agents are commonly prescribed for the treatment of symptomatic congestion in patients hospitalized for…
In 2010, the American Diabetes Association (ADA) added hemoglobin A1c (A1C) to the guidelines for diagnosing type 2 diabetes. However, existing models for predicting diabetes risk were developed prior to the widespread adoption of A1C. Thus, it remains unknown how…
Serum osmolality may fluctuate with neurohormonal activation and in response to certain therapeutics in patients with heart failure (HF). The clinical relevance of osmolality in patients with HF has not been defined. In this post hoc analysis of the Efficacy…
The recent explosion in available electronic health record (EHR) data is motivating a rapid expansion of electronic health care predictive analytic (e-HPA) applications, defined as the use of electronic algorithms that forecast clinical events in real time with the intent…
Hospital discharge planning has been hampered by the lack of predictive models. To develop predictive models for nonelective rehospitalization and postdischarge mortality suitable for use in commercially available electronic medical records (EMRs). Retrospective cohort study using split validation. Integrated health…
Although the prognosis of ambulatory heart failure (HF) has improved dramatically there have been few advances in the management of acute HF (AHF). Despite regional differences in patient characteristics, background therapy, and event rates, AHF clinical trial enrollment has transitioned…
The objective of this study was to obtain external validation of the only available midlife dementia risk score cardiovascular risk factors , aging and dementia study (CAIDE) constituting age, education, hypertension, obesity, and hyperlipidemia in a larger, more diverse population.…
The absolute neutrophil count and the immature/total neutrophil ratio (I/T) provide information about the risk of early onset sepsis in newborns. However, it is not clear how to combine their potentially overlapping information into a single likelihood ratio. We obtained…
BACKGROUND: Anemia has been associated with worse outcomes in patients with chronic heart failure (HF). We aimed to characterize the clinical profile and postdischarge outcomes of hospitalized HF patients with anemia at admission or discharge.METHODS AND RESULTS: An analysis was…
Framingham risk score (FRS) underestimates risk in young adults. Left ventricular mass (LVM) relates to cardiovascular disease (CVD), with unclear value in youth. In a young biracial cohort, we investigate how FRS predicts CVD over 20 years and the incremental…
Lower serum lipid levels are paradoxically predictive of poor clinical outcomes in hospitalized and ambulatory patients with heart failure (HF). In large randomized controlled trials, statins did not demonstrate an overall mortality benefit in chronic HF patients. We currently lack…
BACKGROUND: Transaminases are commonly elevated in both the inpatient and ambulatory settings in heart failure (HF).AIMS: To determine the prevalence and degree of elevated transaminase levels at admission and to evaluate the association between transaminase levels and in-hospital morbidity and…
We investigate how early adult and 20-year changes in modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (MRF) predict left atrial dimension (LAD) at age 43-55 years. The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study enrolled black and white adults (1985-1986). We…
To define a quantitative stratification algorithm for the risk of early-onset sepsis (EOS) in newborns ? 34 weeks' gestation. We conducted a retrospective nested case-control study that used split validation. Data collected on each infant included sepsis risk at birth…
BACKGROUND: Adjustment for differing risks among patients is usually incorporated into newer payment approaches, and current risk models rely on age, sex, and diagnosis codes. It is unknown the extent to which controlling additionally for disease severity improves cost prediction.…
BACKGROUND: Although heart failure (HF) is a syndrome with important differences in response to therapy by left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), existing risk stratification models typically group all HF patients together. The relative importance of common predictor variables for important…
More accurate and reliable stroke risk prediction tools are needed to optimize anticoagulation decision making in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We developed a new AF stroke prediction model using the original Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA)…
RATIONAL, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: The study aims to determine the extent to which the addition of post-admission information via time-dependent covariates improved the ability of a survival model to predict the daily risk of hospital death. METHOD: Using administrative and…
PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Neonatal early-onset sepsis (EOS) is a very low-incidence, but potentially fatal condition among term and late preterm newborns. EOS algorithms based on risk-factor threshold values result in evaluation and empiric antibiotic treatment of large numbers of uninfected…
BACKGROUND: We sought to define the factors associated with the occurrence of stroke and systemic embolism in a large, international atrial fibrillation (AF) trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: In ROCKET AF (Rivaroxaban Once-daily, oral, direct factor Xa inhibition Compared with vitamin…
AIMS: Signs and symptoms of congestion are the most common cause for hospitalization for heart failure (HHF). The clinical course and prognostic value of congestion during HHF has not been systemically characterized.METHODS AND RESULTS: A post hoc analysis was performed…
Lower cholesterol levels are associated with worse outcomes in patients with chronic heart failure (HF) and have been shown to predict in-hospital mortality. The relation between lipid profile and postdischarge outcomes in patients hospitalized for worsening HF is less clear.…
BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) complicated by atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF/AFL) is associated with worse outcomes. However, the clinical profile and outcomes of patients following hospitalization for HF with AF/AFL on initial electrocardiogram (ECG) has not been well studied.METHODS: EVEREST was a…
BACKGROUND: Low lymphocyte count has been shown to be an independent prognostic marker in heart failure (HF) in the outpatient setting. Limited data exist regarding whether relative lymphocyte count correlates with postdischarge outcomes in patients hospitalized for HF.METHODS AND RESULTS:…
AIMS: Data on the prognosis of heart failure (HF) patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) have been conflicting. We describe the clinical characteristics and mode-specific outcomes of HF patients with reduced ejection fraction (EF) and documented CAD in a large…
OBJECTIVE: Moderately premature infants, defined here as those born between 30(0)/(7) and 34(6)/(7) weeks gestation, comprise 3.9% of all births in the United States and 32% of all preterm births. Although long-term outcomes for these infants are better than for…
OBJECTIVE: To examine demographic, socioeconomic, and biological risk factors for all-cause, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes over 8 years and to construct mortality prediction equations. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Beginning in 2000, survey and medical…
BACKGROUND: Ward patients who experience unplanned transfer to intensive care units have excess morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE: To develop a predictive model for prediction of unplanned transfer from the medical-surgical ward to intensive care (or death on the ward in…
ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: To evaluate the U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) and Framingham risk equations for predicting short-term risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) events among adults with long-standing type 2 diabetes, including those with and without preexisting CHD. METHODS: Prospective…
OBJECTIVE: To identify preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables that predict higher short- and long-term patient satisfaction with Mohs surgery. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: A university-based dermatology practice and the affiliated Veterans Affairs medical center dermatology clinic. Patients A total…
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The risk of recurrent stroke in the modern era of secondary stroke prevention is not well defined. Several prediction models, including the Stroke Prognostic Instrument-II (SPI-II), have been created to identify patients at highest risk, but their…
OBJECTIVE: To develop a quantitative model to estimate the probability of neonatal early-onset bacterial infection on the basis of maternal intrapartum risk factors. METHODS: This was a nested case-control study of infants born at >/=34 weeks' gestation at 14 California…
Area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve is often used to evaluate risk models. However, reclassification tests provide an alternative assessment of model performance. We performed both evaluations on results from FRAX (World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Metabolic…
BACKGROUND: Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a significant health problem but goes largely undiagnosed, undisclosed, and clinically undocumented. PURPOSE: To use historical data on diagnoses and telephone advice calls to develop a predictive model that identifies clinical profiles of women…
BACKGROUND: As electronic patient data from automated hospital databases become increasingly available, it is important to explore the ways in which these data could be used for the purposes other than patient care, such as quality assurance and improvement. OBJECTIVE:…
OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to develop a risk stratification score to predict warfarin-associated hemorrhage. BACKGROUND: Optimal decision making regarding warfarin use for atrial fibrillation requires estimation of hemorrhage risk. METHODS: We followed up 9,186 patients with atrial…
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the utility of the Fracture Risk Calculator (FRC, Foundation for Osteoporosis Research and Education) for predicting 10-year hip fracture risk within a 'real world' population. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. METHODS: We identified female members of Kaiser…
OBJECTIVE: Apnea of prematurity is one of the most common diagnoses in the NICU. Because resolution of apnea is a usual precondition for discharge from the hospital, different monitoring practices might affect length of stay for premature infants. Our objective…
Multistage models have been effective at describing length of stay (LOS) distributions for diverse patient groups. Our study objective was to determine whether such models could be used for patient groups restricted by diagnosis, severity of illness, or hospital in…
Central pulse pressure (PP) can be noninvasively derived using the radial artery tonometric methods. Knowledge of central pressure profiles has predicted cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in several populations of patients, particularly those with known coronary artery disease and those receiving…
PURPOSE:The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of adding zoledronic acid 4 mg intravenously every 6 months to endocrine therapy in premenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive early breast cancer from a US health care system perspective.MATERIALS AND…
BACKGROUND: Length of stay (LOS) is a common measure of hospital resource utilization. Most methods for risk-adjusting LOS are limited by the use of only administrative data. Recent studies suggest that adding automated clinical data to these models improves performance.…
Estimating risk of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) for patients with unruptured brain arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) in the natural course is essential for assessing risks and benefits of treatment. Traditionally, the survival period starts at the time of diagnosis and ends at…
BACKGROUND: The association between asthma and anaphylaxis remains poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: To ascertain, in a managed care organization in northern California, the association of asthma and asthma severity with future risk of anaphylactic shock and other selected allergy diagnoses. METHODS:…
BACKGROUND: Aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) is a measure of arterial stiffness and has proved useful in predicting cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in several populations of patients, including the healthy elderly, hypertensives and those with end-stage renal disease receiving hemodialysis.…
BACKGROUND: This study examined the construct validity and reliability of the new 2-item Stanford Brief Activity Survey (SBAS). METHODS: Secondary analysis was conducted using data collected from the healthy older controls (n = 1023) enrolled in the Atherosclerotic Disease Vascular…
OBJECTIVES: Accurately predicting hospital mortality is necessary to measure and compare patient care. External validation of predictive models is required to truly prove their utility. This study assessed the Kaiser Permanente inpatient risk adjustment methodology for hospital mortality in a…
OBJECTIVE: To develop a late-life dementia risk index that can accurately stratify older adults into those with a low, moderate, or high risk of developing dementia within 6 years. METHODS: Subjects were 3,375 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Cognition Study…
RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: Breast arterial calcification (BAC) detected on mammography is frequently not included in final reports. However, previous studies have indicated that BAC may be evidence of general atherosclerotic vascular disease, and it can potentially be a useful marker…
BACKGROUND: Few cohort studies have focused on risk factors for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). This investigation evaluated the prognostic value of several potential novel risk factors for ESRD after considering established risk factors. METHODS: We studied 177 570 individuals from…
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Some patients diagnosed with transient ischemic attack (TIA) in the emergency department may actually have alternative diagnoses such as seizure, migraine, or other nonvascular spells. The ABCD2 score has been shown to predict subsequent risk of stroke…
OBJECTIVE: To describe the development and assessment of the Abbreviated Fine Severity Score (AFSS), a simplified version of the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) suitable for providing risk-adjusted reports to clinicians caring for patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective…
OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether physiological trends and interaction terms could enhance predictive ability in a variant of the Richardson Score. METHOD: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from 2,222 newborns of 34 weeks or more gestation with respiratory…
OBJECTIVE: We sought to examine demographic, socioeconomic, and biological predictors of all-cause, cardiovascular, and noncardiovascular mortality in patients with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Survey, medical record, and administrative data were obtained from 8,733 participants in the Translating Research Into…
BACKGROUND: We aimed to validate two similar existing prognostic scores for early risk of stroke after transient ischaemic attack (TIA) and to derive and validate a unified score optimised for prediction of 2-day stroke risk to inform emergency management. METHODS:…
BACKGROUND: In addition to predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality, the metabolic syndrome is strongly associated with the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM), itself an important risk factor for CVD. Our objective was to compare the ability…
OBJECTIVES: (1) To validate a previously reported risk index for predicting total serum bilirubin (TSB) levels of 25 mg/dL (428 micromol/L) or higher; (2) to combine a subset of this index with TSB levels measured at less than 48 hours…
Calcified coronary artery plaque, measured at cardiac computed tomography (CT), is a predictor of cardiovascular disease and may play an increasing role in cardiovascular disease risk assessment. The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and the Coronary Artery Risk Development in…
OBJECTIVES: To develop a model to predict which newborns >/=34 weeks gestation with respiratory distress will die or will require prolonged (>3 days) assisted ventilation. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using data from Northern California newborns >/=34 weeks gestation who presented…
CONTEXT: Management of patients with acute transient ischemic attack (TIA) varies widely, with some institutions admitting all patients and others proceeding with outpatient evaluations. Defining the short-term prognosis and risk factors for stroke after TIA may provide guidance in determining…
OBJECTIVES: Reference data are lacking on the frequency and duration of assisted ventilation in neonates. This information is essential for determining resource needs and planning clinical trials. As mortality becomes uncommon, ventilator utilization is increasingly used as a measure for…
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