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Ben J. Marafino, PhD

ben.j.marafino@kp.org

Kaiser Permanente Researcher Profiles

Marafino, Ben J.

Ben J. Marafino, Ph.D., is a Research Scientist at the Kaiser Permanente Division of Research and an Assistant Professor of Health Systems Science at the Kaiser Permanente Bernard J. Tyson School of Medicine. He also holds an adjunct appointment in biostatistics at the University of California, Berkeley.

Dr. Marafino is a nationally recognized expert in clinical predictive modeling, with end-to-end experience developing, deploying, and evaluating AI/ML models in healthcare settings. He led the first large-scale application of causal machine learning in healthcare, as well as its first randomized evaluation. Among his contributions to care delivery research, Dr. Marafino designed and co-led KP-VACCINATE, the largest randomized trial ever conducted in a healthcare system. His work has won several awards, including the AcademyHealth Best of the Annual Research Meeting Award. His current research focuses on novel approaches to pragmatic trials, and on the development of large generative transformer foundation models pretrained on electronic health records.

Dr. Marafino also serves as a methodologist, lending his expertise in statistics, AI/ML, and informatics to other investigators at the Division of Research and The Permanente Medical Group. To date, he has supported over 40 investigators in this capacity and serves as a mentor to early-career researchers, including several K awardees. He received his PhD from Stanford University.

Current Positions

  • Research Scientist, Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Northern California
  • Assistant Professor, Health Systems Science, Kaiser Permanente Bernard J. Tyson School of Medicine
  • Adjunct faculty, University of California, Berkeley

Section Affiliations

Primary Research Interests

  • Clinical predictive modeling
  • Pragmatic clinical trials
  • Methods for observational studies, including quasi-experimental methods
  • Natural language processing
  • Transformer foundation models for electronic health records

Publications

Data-Driven Phenotypic Clusters of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus and Associations With Risk of Perinatal Complications and Postpartum Diabetes

Authors: Zhu Y;Ngo AL;Liao LD;Harvill R;Marafino BJ;Chehab RF;Greenberg MB;Ferrara A

Diabetes Care. 2026 Mar 17.

PubMed abstract

Trends in Open Aortic Valve Surgery in the United States: Descriptive Analysis of Sociodemographic Factors in Patient Selection

Authors: Burton É;Marafino B;Pines KC;Morrison T;Groeneveld MC;Baiocchi M

BMC Surg. 2026 Feb 25.

PubMed abstract

Development and validation of a machine learning model to identify individuals at high risk for psychotic disorders using medical record data

Authors: Marafino BJ;Kline-Simon AH;Stavers-Sosa I;Cronkite DJ;Gerstley LD;Durojaiye C;Kelley A;Kiel L;Ramaprasan A;Carrell DS;Penfold RB;Hirschtritt ME

BMC Psychiatry. 2026 Feb 10.

PubMed abstract

Cardiovascular-Focused Messaging to Improve Influenza Vaccination Rates

Authors: Bhatt AS;Bhatt, Ankeet S;Parikh, Rishi V;Tan, Thida C;Marafino, Ben J;Ambrosy, Andrew P;Go, Alan S;Go AS; et al.

NEJM Evid. 2025 Aug 30:EVIDoa2500208.

PubMed abstract

Expanding care coordination in an integrated health system through causal machine learning

Authors: Marafino BJ;Plimier C;Kipnis P;Escobar GJ;Myers LC;Donnelly MC;Greene JD;Flagg MD;Small JR;Liu VX

NPJ Digit Med. 2025 Sep 24;8(1):571. Epub 2025-09-24.

PubMed abstract

Electronically Delivered, Cardiovascular-Focused Messaging to Improve Influenza Vaccination: Rationale, Design, and Baseline Characteristics of the KP-VACCINATE Megatrial

Authors: Bhatt AS;Bhatt, Ankeet S;Go, Alan S;Parikh, Rishi V;Tan, Thida C;Marafino, Ben J;Ambrosy, Andrew P;Berry NC; et al.

Am Heart J. 2025 Jun 18. Epub 2025-06-18.

PubMed abstract

Protocol for Designing a Model to Predict the Likelihood of Psychosis From Electronic Health Records Using Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning

Authors: Stavers-Sosa, Icelini;Cronkite, David J;Gerstley, Lawrence D;Kelley, Ann;Kiel, Linda;Kline-Simon, Andrea H;Marafino, Ben J;Ramaprasan, Arvind;Carrell, David S;Hirschtritt, Matthew E

Perm J. 2024 Sep 16;28(3):23-36. Epub 2024-09-02.

PubMed abstract

Effectiveness of an Artificial Intelligence-Enabled Intervention for Detecting Clinical Deterioration

Authors: Gallo, Robert J;Shieh, Lisa;Smith, Margaret;Marafino, Ben J;Geldsetzer, Pascal;Asch, Steven M;Shum, Kenny;Lin, Steven;Westphal, Jerri;Hong, Grace;Li, Ron Chen

JAMA Intern Med. 2024 Mar 25.

PubMed abstract

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Status, Tenofovir Exposure, and the Risk of Poor Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) Outcomes: Real-World Analysis From 6 United States Cohorts Before Vaccine Rollout

Authors: Lea, Alexandra N; Marafino, Ben J; Skarbinski, Jacek; Silverberg, Michael J; et al.

Clin Infect Dis. 2023 Mar 02.

PubMed abstract

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